While the stability problems of the Millennium building, (aka, Leaning Tower of SOMA) have been well noted, many of the City's high-rise buildings are subject to liquefaction and 39 have been identified with basic welding defects.
Under-Reported Risks from Earthquakes in High-Rise Buildings
by David Osgood
•••••••••• March 2023 ••••••••••
Even a cursory look at San Francisco’s building quality and standards reveals that the potential for deaths and injuries from a major earthquake is much higher than most people realize. Much of the possible devastation is preventable, but the City is not taking appropriate actions—apparently for the benefit of developers and property owners.
One Market Plaza / Market at Beale
Current building standards are intended to keep 90% of tall buildings standing after a severe earthquake, but that indicates the collapse of 10%—approximately 16 high rises, possibly fully occupied—is acceptable to the City. That could be worse than 9/11—even if the 90% goal is achieved. Who made that life-and-death decision? One estimate predicts half of the downtown buildings could be uninhabitable. More robust building codes and retrofitting could reduce this devastation. Other countries are actively retrofitting their tall buildings, but San Francisco is hardly getting started. Many companies, especially in the high-tech community, will not remain in San Francisco waiting for buildings to be rebuilt or rehabilitated.
That 90% goal seems only to consider how new buildings are designed—and as if they will all be on rock-solid ground—it does not consider the effects of liquefaction. Nor do defects in older buildings, such as faulty welding techniques, seem to be a consideration. All of these issues can cause buildings to collapse. Some buildings are probably vulnerable to multiple problems. San Francisco leaders should consider four distinct problem areas individually and collectively:
Buildings in an area of liquifaction
must have deep pilings to keep them stable
1. Effects of liquefaction
2. Inferior frame welding
3. General engineering quality
4. Two inconsistent sets of building standards
Facts, Figures Concealed
Unfortunately, studies, articles, and discussions often address only one of these categories or jump around between them. They can allow special interests to conceal problems. For example, a New York Times article quoted an engineer as saying San Francisco buildings are well-designed and will probably not collapse during a significant earthquake. That may sound reassuring, but it ignores categories one, two and four (listed above) and is inadequate for category three. As noted, some buildings may be vulnerable to all four problems. Whether one wishes to design, regulate, acquire, work in, or live in a high-rise, information must be available that covers all three categories.
Liquefaction has been a known condition for a long time. The problem of inferior welds has been recognized for almost 30 years, and it has been four years since the New York Times exposé of the problem. For decades, the City has allowed weaker standards for buildings shorter than 240 feet. City leaders show no signs of seriously considering these structural deficiencies.”
Effects of liquefaction. It is the most serious prospective problem and the most overlooked. According to an online, interactive database maintained by the SF Office of Resilience and Capital Planning (ORCP), approximately 114 downtown high rises are on soil with a “very high” potential for liquefaction. And according to a letter from the ORCP, “most” buildings' foundations do not reach down to bedrock. (The number, and even an estimate, is concealed.) It is hard to imagine how even the strongest, best-engineered building could be immune from this problem when the entire structure, including its foundation, rests on top of soil that could liquefy. Obviously, these buildings will not float, and bedrock is not flat. The ORCP database also names 43 buildings, including the Transamerica Pyramid, that have what is called “mat” or “floating raft” foundations that do not reach bedrock. From the Ground Up / Douglas Frantz
(Twenty-five of these are rated “very high” for liquefaction.) While they may “float” on dry soil, the case has, of course, not been made that they will stand up in liquified soil. From the Ground Up, a well-researched source written by Douglas Frantz, names several other substantial buildings that have pilings that do not reach down to bedrock: One Market Plaza, pictured above (including the Spear Tower at 43 stories and Steuart Tower at 27 stories), and Rincon Center (twin 22-story towers at 88 Howard that include 320 apartments and five floors of Google offices). The Millennium Tower is an example of a newer building designed not to reach bedrock, and it has had problems even without an earthquake. We have never seen a description of what is likely to happen to tall buildings like these during liquefaction.
It appears the City is concealing this problem. The ORCP’s database of high-rises includes significant other information about their foundations, such as the type of foundation, depth to bedrock, and the likelihood of liquefaction. What is omitted is alarming: the simple (but critical) yes/no indication whether the foundation reaches bedrock. Again, according to the ORCP, most buildings do not touch bedrock. Finding an answer to this question requires scheduling a visit to a city office to research the building. The ORCP should have included that information in the database, which is available online. The Millennium Tower is fixing its problem, reportedly, by inserting pilings that will reach bedrock. New York City restricted high-rises to its downtown and midtown because those areas have higher bedrock. The City should hold hearings to determine why buildings in the “very high” liquefaction downtown zone of San Francisco were permitted without foundations reaching bedrock.
Inferior frame welding. Both the US Geological Survey and the New York Times have documented this serious condition at 39 San Francisco high rises (and briefly copied in local news media). It does not need to be described again here. The potential for severe structural failure is alarming. The problem could compound categories one and three as well. This problem has been known for nearly 30 years, and some California cities have already demanded corrective actions. Unfortunately, the problem seems to be forgotten in San Francisco, and the ORCP indicates the City may “begin” to address it in a couple of years.
General engineering quality. Assuming issues #1 and #2 are not applicable, the City's building codes are supposedly designed to keep 90% of tall buildings standing after an earthquake. But this does not mean they will remain habitable. The burden of repairing or replacing red-tagged buildings will be considerable. Furthermore, adjacent buildings must be vacated until a red-tagged structure has been removed or repaired. They could remain unoccupied for many months. The City must adopt standards to keep all buildings upright and habitable after a big earthquake.
Two inconsistent sets of building standards. Having a tougher set of earthquake standards for buildings over 240 feet is arbitrary and inappropriate. Some shorter buildings are very large in the horizontal direction and stretch for an entire block. The ORCP database does not include the two substantial buildings shown here, presumably built with generally weaker earthquake standards. (One is also on the list of 39 buildings with inferior steel frame welding. It served as the corporate headquarters of the Charles Schwab Corporation until recently. The other currently houses the main offices of the State Bar of California.)
Again, it is crucial that discussions, articles and hearings thoroughly consider all potential problems. Experts should not be allowed to cherry-pick some issues and ignore others. It is also important to understand why inferior building codes were allowed in the past (and currently) so mistakes are not repeated. A thorough analysis of all tall buildings must be conducted and published so people know the risks. Nothing should be concealed.
Bottom line: Installing a sophisticated sliding foundation (“base isolation”) system won’t help much if a building’s steel welds are coming apart. Strengthening the welds won’t do much good if the entire building is sinking. Adding pilings down to bedrock is no big deal if the building is shaking apart. All potential problems need to be considered and addressed.
A committee of the 50-year-old Coalition for San Francisco Neighborhoods, which represents neighborhood groups across the City, agrees the City must take prompt and meaningful action (April 2022 newsletter).
Time for action
Liquefaction has been a known condition for a long time. The problem of inferior welds has been recognized for almost 30 years, and it has been four years since the New York Times exposé of the problem. For decades, the City has allowed weaker standards for buildings shorter than 240 feet. City leaders show no signs of seriously considering these structural deficiencies. The first step is to acknowledge the problems, then develop solutions. Citizens should know what city officials know. The following steps are critical:
A list of high-rise structures that do not reach bedrock must be publicized.
A better understanding of high-rise buildings that do not rest on bedrock and descriptions of what is likely to happen during a severe earthquake in high-liquefaction zones is required.
Corrective actions are required now. The City must formally notify tenants in the 39 buildings with welding deficiencies
The Board of Supervisors must call hearings of Department of Building Inspection and Planning Department officials to explain how these problems developed.
The owners of buildings with these safety risks must be required to develop and implement corrective measures.
Strong earthquake standards also need to apply to buildings shorter than 240 feet. A 22-story building is not insignificant.
Buildings must be closed every 25 years for refitting with the latest earthquake standards and precautions.
The database maintained by the ORCP needs to indicate which buildings do not reach down to bedrock.
Local news media need to give these issues more attention and should report the progress of retrofits every month.
Buildings should be rated so that their inhabitants know the risks. For example, buildings should be penalized one point for each potential problem: in a high liquefaction zone, and the foundation does not reach bedrock, one of the 39 with inferior welds, older without retrofitting, built to weaker standards (shorter than 240 feet). Owners must post these ratings (the smaller, the better) in a highly visible location.
Questions that should be asked and answered include:
• How many of the 39 buildings known for years to have weak structural welds have been fixed?
• How many large buildings on fill with foundations that do not touch bedrock have had improvements added in recent years to address their shortcoming?
• Which large buildings are on fill and do not have foundations resting on bedrock? What is likely to happen to these during a strong earthquake?
Why are tall buildings still being built in close proximity to other tall buildings?
• Why are buildings shorter than 240 feet still being built under weaker standards? How did these deficiencies come about?
Many buildings have been largely vacant for the past two years, and many structural improvements could have occurred with minimal disruption. Ongoing work on the Millennium Tower is evidence that structural improvements can be made. According to recent reports, the Transamerica Pyramid will soon be undergoing major structural work – but the reasons for this work are unclear. Will its foundation still “float?” At least one other building owner claims to have strengthened its building. So it can be done. No building is meant to last forever, and building owners should have factored in the need for major structural upgrades every 25 years or so. Some of the vulnerable buildings are 60 years old now.
David Osgood
It's no exaggeration to say that inaction on these problems could create the biggest news story out of San Francisco this century. City officials cannot claim they didn't know about these problems. It will be their legacy.
David Osgood is a native of Santa Cruz and has lived on the Embarcadero for over 30 years. He worked as a lobbyist for a tech firm and became politically active working for Rep. Leon Panetta. His great-great-grandfather was a 49er. Contact Dave.
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by Frank T. Blackburn and Nancy Wuerfel
Mayor Breed remains blissfully silent on the need to extend adequate fire protection to approximately half the City, even though she has knowledge of Fire Department needs having been a fire commissioner in 2010.
D5 gets $50,000 for tree planting. D8, $246,000 for sidewalk gardens and street trees. And that's it for the entire City. If there is a climate emergency you wouldn't know it from San Francisco.”
There is a need for a routine and consistent review of this facility. Programs that exist here are rarely audited, and when they are, the list of improvements required is long and important.
Time to Shine a Brighter Light on SFUSD Chronic Absences
by Carol Kocivar
Children living in poverty are two to three times more likely to be chronically absent—and face the most harm because their community lacks the resources to make up for the lost learning in school.
As of July 11, just 623 patients remain at LHH, compared to 681 in May. Most have been transferred to San Mateo nursing homes. Three went to homeless shelters.
Power plant emissions formed black soot on windows and doorways in their homes and triggered asthma attacks, headaches and nosebleeds in their children. Residents led the successful fight that ultimately closed the PG&E Hunters Point power plant in 2006
LHH was given 6 months to correct its deficiencies. A follow-up inspection found persistent - and seemingly worse - drug and contraband use, despite LHH’s Plan of Correction.
Will Laguna Honda Solve Its Problems By Abandoning 120 More Patient Beds?
Patrick Monette-Shaw
Both consultants provided “preliminary assessment reports” of their initial recommendations. Only HMA’s “preliminary assessment report” has been made public.
Everybody involved knew that adding “unstable” adults brought disarray and danger to Laguna Honda's seniors. Most folks just went along. Now they’re surprised?
The report concludes groundwater “may” become contaminated as sea level rises. In fact, Shipyard groundwater was documented as“contaminated” where thousands of homes are being constructed.
“It seems preposterous to put a library on a congested thoroughfare when there are better places that are safer for pedestrians to use,” one community member said.
People are frustrated and spurt out the word “segregated”
That's because SFUSD has failed to prepare all ethnicities for a rigorous academic high school.
41% of companies allow employees to relocate permanently to any state freely, while companies that do not allow the employees to relocate elsewhere represent only 5%.
The moderates only need to flip one district from the progressive side of the aisle to preclude the veto power of the Board of Supervisors, since the mayor appointed moderate Supervisor Matt Dorsey ... the Redistricting Task Force handed moderates a perfect set up to do just that.
If a mandatory reduction is ordered, there will be a “floor” or minimum allocation per person so that those who have conserved, and now conserve, will not be penalized.
...competence erodes as conscientious employees get marginalized and lackeys are promoted. This consolidation promotes impunity. Betraying the public trust is normalized.
Violent Thug Attacks, Robs Asian Visitor—Goes Free
Boudin's famed "puppy killer" strikes again
by Lou Barberini
Boudin and the judge circumvented diversion rules because violent criminals are “not eligible” for diversion programs. Why did Boudin send someone to drug diversion if they weren’t arrested for drugs?”
Despite the fact that discharge is not legally required (yet) at Laguna Honda, all patients and their families are being interviewed for discharge and this is causing a lot of stress.
Too bad no one saw this coming......oh, a group of doctors from Laguna Honda did.
They would have us believe he’s responsible for the statistical rise in crime that’s occurred since the pandemic. Research, however, suggests otherwise...
Over time, those special interests have proven adept at using the same “peoples protections” to further their own interests. Recalls are expensive, and a few of San Francisco’s bitterest billionaires buy low-turnout elections when they disagree with the voters...
41% of companies allow employees to relocate permanently to any state freely, while companies that do not allow the employees to relocate elsewhere represent only 5%.
...there are issues that can unite us.. We all want to support our educators who have been doing the hard work every day despite a pandemic and political feud.
Could the motivation behind all of this be to create such a god-awful divisive plan and create so much anger that the voters would just throw up their hands and get rid of it altogether?
Taylor minced no words … the results of her 1995 investigation displeased health officials and influenced her decision not to publish significant findings, “I was convinced there was something there
Chair Townsend's Solution to African-American Population Decline Will Likely Result in a Lawsuit Redistricting's latest map has everyone on edge, scrambling to find out who their new Supervisor will be.
Three new Board of Education commissioners were appointed last month by Mayor London Breed who promises implicitly that SFUSD will somehow conquer a budget deficit of over $125,000,000.
District 7 reclaims Forest Knolls, Twin Peaks, Midtown Terrace, the Woods and Miraloma Park from District 8 as well as all of Lakeshore and Merced Manor from District 4, but loses ground entirely in the Inner Sunset.
Lowell high school's merit-based admission policy is perfectly legal. We’ve looked at the language of the law, the history of the law and the intent of the law. We've done our homework.
As additional funding for supportive housing services through programs like Project Home Key become available, radical reform of board and care programming and funding will be necessary to maintain and expand this crucial resource.
Civil rights laws have been enacted to protect people who are being denied equal access and opportunity. The closure is a violation of the ADA and California disability rights laws.
Donald Trump, disregards 42,000,000 Ukrainians by lauding Putin’s “genius” in invading Ukraine. I urge readers to divest themselves of any reverence or respect for Trump, a draft-dodger, who could demolish the Republican Party.
Labor Union Sues City for Corruption and Retaliation
Union Lawsuit Reveals "City Family" Backroom Maneuvers
by Dr. Derek Kerr
Why does the FBI manage to unearth City Hall corruption, while our watchdog agencies; the Controller’s Whistleblower Program, Ethics Commission and City Attorney’s Office cry “What happened?
… instead of looking seriously into what could be done to solve the coupling problem … henceforth the trains operating in the subway would be only one and two cars long.
Limit plastic used in wrapping done by on-line shopping? Since the pandemic, online shopping has created 29% more waste in landfills which can end up in our oceans
SFPUC: Controllers Audit Reveals Compromised Bid Process
by Dr. Derek Kerr
Most contractors lagged in delivering community benefits and submitting required progress reports. And, once a contract ended, undelivered benefits were not recoverable. SFPUC had no policies to monitor compliance.
Ideally, police can stop “sideshows” before they happen with intel from undercover officers and by monitoring social media accounts that announce where sideshows will be. That was not evident in West Portal & 30th/Lawton incidents
Ginsburg, working with the SF Bicycle Coalition and Walk SF, have banned cars on JFK Drive and the Upper Great Highway during the pandemic. Plans are being made make the bans permanent ...
Drivers ... good news for you: the vast majority of streets are dominated by cars! You can drive on all the roads, which is why a radical change is necessary.
Moving physically - or mentally-challenged patients is clearly detrimental to their health...leaving fragile patients stranded, miles away from their families and friends
Does the City care what your rates are? The Commission recently passed a resolution to guide Herrera. It lacks anything about keeping rates as low as possible.
