San Francisco’s Crime Rate Plummets: Why?
Should We Believe It? Is It Enough?
Crime in our fair city has dropped dramatically in 2024 — largely because of the good work of our District Attorney and police. Compared to the same period last year, it’s down an astounding 32 percent through September 29.
Property crimes have plunged the most (42%), led by a steep decline in car break-ins, but violent crimes have also fallen substantially (14%).
The biggest eye-catching drop is in murders, down a whopping 40 percent, with 24 murders to date, compared to 40 homicides last year. The Chronicle recently reported that San Francisco is on track to have its lowest number of murders since 1960 when there were 30 homicides. (You can read the caveats in the San Francisco Police Department’s (SFPD) crime dashboard, which contains figures for all crimes the FBI tracks.)*
Why has Crime Dropped?
The short answer is ... because of the leadership of District Attorney Brooke Jenkins. Prosecutions for felonies have skyrocketed under her administration, and her office has worked closely with the SFPD to prosecute crimes. I’ll provide concrete examples and data to back this up in a moment, but let’s first address the credibility issue.
Should We Believe it?
If you ask the pundits, some are skeptical that crime is really down. They claim people are just not reporting incidents anymore. While it’s true that less serious crimes often go unreported throughout the USA, no one can seriously maintain that these were diligently reported in San Francisco in 2023 (or before) but are suddenly unreliable this year. If the thought did cross their minds, they can’t explain what changed in crime stats reporting this year that wasn’t already happening in 2023.
However, there is another reason to keep working on crime reduction: recent positive changes may not stick. If we reduce the pressure, legislators, judges and other decision-makers may be desensitized to the community’s concern with public safety.”
Other skeptics don’t believe that increased law enforcement and prosecution can make a difference. They emphasize "root causes" and speculate that criminality is down because poverty has decreased. According to their logic, arresting, jailing and prosecuting criminals doesn’t reduce crime. But, they ignore the fact that unemployment has generally increased this year, after the end of pandemic-era stimulus programs. And poverty typically follows unemployment trends.
Still others claim that the FBI/cops/legacy media/whomever is faking the data. And while data collection is imperfect and national standards managed by the FBI changed in 2021, that doesn’t explain the difference in San Francisco crime rates from 2023 to 2024. Additionally, our local improvement is so great that minor revisions don’t provide an explanation for our progress. Nobody is faking the data.
Readers should also discount national criminologists (who know little about the San Francisco crime scene) claiming that these are random numbers. Their claims that enforcement has nothing to do with the drop in our local crime ring hollow.
Sure, it’s true that for murders, the small sample size means that the dramatic drop in that category may be the result of random effects. That’s not necessarily a statistically significant, long-lasting trend. But, the month-after-month duration and magnitude of the overall crime trend – 12,000 fewer crimes in the last nine months — indicates something real. That becomes even clearer when compared to other California cities where crime is increasing or decreasing at a slower rate.
Why has Crime Dropped?
Short answer: District Attorney Brooke Jenkins.
Let’s return to the question of why crime has dropped. Under Jenkins, the District Attorney’s Office has prioritized fighting open-air drug markets and holding drug dealers accountable. Since she became DA in July 2022, her office has filed over 1,700 felony narcotics cases, far more than her predecessor, Chesa Boudin, during an equivalent time period. As of August 17, 2024, the DA has been presented with 563 felony narcotics cases by the police and filed 483 cases this year. In the same time period, there have been 151 felony narcotics convictions and 90 guilty pleas in other cases.
In contrast, there were three (3) felony convictions for drug dealing in 2021, the last full year under former DA Chesa Boudin, and none for fentanyl, according to the SF Standard. The word has spread in the criminal underworld that San Francisco is no longer such a soft touch. Close observers tell us that the difference is especially evident in the daytime Tenderloin, where open-air drug dealing no longer prevails (it’s still a major problem after dark). Criminals increasingly seek other target areas.
Since the narcotics trade drives much of property and violent crime in SF, this has had an impact on overall crime rates. Equally important, DA Jenkins treats non-narcotics felonies and misdemeanors seriously. Her actions have improved cooperation with the police, leading to better morale and increased enforcement.
While the DA office’s achievements are critical to the drop in crime, public safety is complicated. Many factors – good police work and investigations, and cooperation with the CHP, Sheriff and Feds - contribute to the progress we’ve made in crime reduction.
Other Reasons Crime is Down
Cooperation
Another major factor is increased cooperation between agencies through the Drug Market Agency Coordination Center. Mayor London Breed launched this joint center for coordinating the anti-drug dealing efforts of local, state and federal law enforcement agencies, while also facilitating treatment and recovery service outreach. The multi-agency task force was established in San Francisco to combat open-air drug markets, particularly in the Tenderloin and SOMA.
In addition to the SFPD and the DA’s Office, the California Highway Patrol, Sheriff’s Department, Department of Justice and even the California National Guard have put officers on the street or helped with investigations.
Better Police Work
SFPD officers get a lot of the credit, too. Better policing and ongoing reforms have been important factors. Police techniques such as bait cars and increased SFPD emphasis on plainclothes and undercover operations have dramatically impacted car break-ins, which are down more than 50 percent over the previous year. (Note that car break-ins decreased about 17 percent nationally in the first quarter.)
San Francisco also has an extraordinary clearance rate for solving murders in recent years. SFPD’s clearance rate for homicides was 94 percent last year, far higher than the state average of 60 percent and the national average of just over 50 percent.
SFPD and Drones Catch Criminals!
SF voters also approved Proposition E in the March election, allowing the use of modern technology in crime fighting. The SFPD has already put the new law to use by tracking criminal suspects with drones and using other technology for surveillance.
Watch Police Chief Bill Scott show how our police caught two criminal gangs in July, and then see another arrest in August: Video of Drone Footage of 8/22 Arrest. All three suspects in the latter arrest had firearms, and the stolen property in their car was returned to their victims. Since only a few car break-in gangs are operating in the city, the combined pressure from the SFPD and the DA has had a real impact.
There are other factors at play. The decline of Covid, with the resultant return to the workforce and schools, is widely believed to have contributed. Police reforms in the wake of the murder of George Floyd and increased public recognition that police are essential to maintain public safety could also play a role. And with fewer tourists and lower downtown employment, there are fewer potential victims than in pre-Covid times (but more than in 2023, our comparison year).
Finally, to toot our own horn, Stop Crime Action and its sister organization, Stop Crime SF, have boosted anti-crime efforts through our Court Watch, Judge Report, and public education programs. And retailers and residents have become more pro-active, with stores moving frequently shoplifted goods under lock-and-key, car owners removing valuables from their vehicles, etc.
Positive feedback loop
Cumulatively, these factors may be creating a positive feedback loop. One positive action (e.g., increased prosecution of drug dealing) reinforces others (reduced larcenies to pay for drugs), which work together to further decrease crime overall. Small initial changes (the arrest of two small car theft gangs) can be magnified and lead to larger effects over time.
Is the drop in crime enough?
Hell no, who cares about overall stats when you or a family member are a victim of a violent crime? If your car, residence or business is burglarized, chances are that you will feel violated. I still remember years later explaining criminality to our daughters after a thief stole their Christmas presents from our home. We need to keep going. There is much we can do to improve.
However, there is another reason to keep working on crime reduction: recent positive changes may not stick. If we reduce the pressure, legislators, judges and other decision-makers may be desensitized to the community’s concern with public safety. Budgetary issues and other priorities may fill the policy void.
What happens next?
Will SF crime stay down, or will it worsen again? Stay tuned for further reporting.
*Note that only ten crimes are shown on the dashboard. As crime journalist and retired police officer Lou Barberini points out in this article, drug dealing and carrying illegal guns are not included in the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting or SFPD’s dashboard data. They are included in arrest data, however.
Frank Noto is president of Stop Crime Action and a co-founder of Stop Crime SF.
October 2024
